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Home/Critical Thinking, Skepticism, & Atheism/This is a really good article, and I plan on doing the suggested experiment this evening.

This is a really good article, and I plan on doing the suggested experiment this evening.

This is a really good article, and I plan on doing the suggested experiment this evening.

“I want to begin this post with a simple thought experiment. It is not original with me, and unfortunately, I don’t recall where I first heard it, but I think that it is a useful exercise. I want you to think about all of the thousands of different views, beliefs, ideas, etc. that you hold. Think about all of the things that you think are true. Now, estimate the percentage of them that are actually true. In other words, if you are honest with yourself, you’ll have to admit that you are almost certainly wrong about at least some of your views. It’s extremely unlikely that you are right 100% of the time. So how often do you think that you are right? 80% of the time? 90% of the time? 95%? Are you presumptuous enough to go to 99%? Regardless of what number you settled on, it was surely something less than 100% (unless you are hopelessly arrogant). You’re not correct 100% of the time, and neither am I, and neither was Stephen Hawking, and neither was Einstein, etc.

Now, having established that you are wrong about at least some of your views, I want you to divide your views into things you’re right about and things you’re wrong about. Go ahead and try it. You can’t do it, and neither can I. You inherently don’t know which of your views are wrong, because if you knew that a view was false, then you wouldn’t hold it as a true belief (as least I hope that is the case). In other words, we all hold the views that we hold because we think that they are true. So we inherently think that all of our views are right even though, if we are honest, we have to admit that at least some of them are almost certainly false.”

https://thelogicofscience.com/2017/01/16/youre-probably-wrong/

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Written by:
Charles Payet
Published on:
July 25, 2018
Thoughts:
7 Comments

Categories: Critical Thinking, Skepticism, & AtheismTags: Charles “Chip” Payet

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